ISLAMABAD, June 9, 2025 – The federal government is set to unveil the Economic Survey 2024–25 today, revealing that key targets for GDP and agricultural growth were missed. Still, most sectors recorded better performance compared to the previous year, signaling a moderate improvement.
Following the introduction, the Economic Survey highlights that while GDP growth edged up slightly from 2.51% to 2.68%, it fell short of the 3.6% target, largely due to a steep slowdown in agriculture. Crop output across major staples wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and corn declined between 1.3% and 30.7%, with cotton bearing the heaviest loss.
Industrial activity, by contrast, rebounded robustly: manufacturing grew by 1.53% and the construction sector surged by 6.61%, driven by public infrastructure projects and rising housing starts. Exports rose 7.6% to $26.9 billion through April, but imports rose in tandem, widening the trade deficit to $21.4 billion.
Key Growth Indicators
| Indicator | 2024–25 (%) | 2023–24 (%) | Target (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 2.68 | 2.51 | 3.60 |
| Agricultural Growth Rate | 0.56 | 6.40 | — |
| Industrial Growth Rate | 4.70 | 1.37 | — |
| Large-Scale Manufacturing Growth | 1.53 | 0.94 | — |
| Construction Sector Growth | 6.61 | 1.14 | — |
Note: Agricultural growth plunged sharply year-on-year, while construction and industry showed notable rebounds.
Economy Size and Income
| Metric | 2024–25 | 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|
| Economy Size (USD) | 411 billion | 372 billion |
| Per Capita Income (USD) | 1,824 | 1,680 |
| Primary Balance (Jul–Mar, PKR b) | 3,469 | 1,615 |
| Budget Deficit (Jul–Mar, PKR b) | 2,970 | 3,902 |
| Deficit as % of GDP (Jul–Mar) | 2.4 % | 3.7 % |
Construction of a healthier primary balance helped lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP.
Trade and External Sector
| Metric | Jul–Apr 2024–25 | Jul–Apr 2023–24 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (USD bn) | 26.89 | 25.27 | 7.6 |
| Imports (USD bn) | 48.29 | 44.90 | 7.6* |
| Trade Deficit (USD bn) | 21.40 | 19.63 | 9.0 |
Imports rose in line with export growth, keeping the trade gap wider year-on-year.
Industrial and Manufacturing Output
| Sector | Jul–Apr 2024–25 | Jul–Apr 2023–24 |
|---|---|---|
| Cement Production (mt) | 37.3 | 37.4 |
| Vehicle Production (units) | 111,332 | 179,593 |
| Tractor Production (units) | 24,832 | 38,282 |
| Petroleum Product Sales (mt) | 13.22 | 12.40 |
Vehicle and tractor assembly saw sharp declines, while petroleum sales edged up.
Agricultural Crop Performance
| Crop | 2024–25 Production | 2023–24 Production | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat (mt) | 28.9 | 31.8 | –9.8 |
| Rice (mt) | 9.72 | 9.86 | –1.3 |
| Sugarcane (mt) | 84.2 | 87.6 | –3.8 |
| Cotton (bales) | 7.0 | 10.2 | –30.7 |
| Corn (mt) | 8.24 | 9.74 | –15.4 |
| Pulses (mt) | 29,658 | 34,560 | –14.1 |
| Vegetables (mt) | 318,000 | 295,000 | +7.8 |
| Fruit (mt) | 390,000 | 375,000 | +4.0 |
| Fodder (mt) | 505,000 | 617,000 | –18.2 |
Despite overall crop declines, vegetable and fruit outputs registered gains, driven by favourable weather and irrigation projects.
In closing, the survey paints a picture of mixed progress: a healthier primary balance trimmed the budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.7%, yet missed targets in agriculture underscore the need for renewed focus on rural support and water management.
Policymakers will likely prioritize irrigation reforms and crop diversification to bolster farm incomes. With industry and construction showing promise, sustained investment in these sectors, alongside stronger trade diplomacy, could help Pakistan build on this moderate improvement and chart a steadier path to growth.
